Daily Intel // Alpha Protocol

The Crypto
Morning Report

Wednesday 12 Aug London 07:16
⚠️ DATA STATUS — 1 SOURCE UNAVAILABLE
* AC AI Council Error: All council analysts failed
Sections affected by failed sources may show incomplete data or be absent from this report.
⚠️ Dan's View — council analysis failed — no views generated
Market Pulse
Fear & Greed
27
Fear
Global Voltage
$2.3T
Stablecoin Supply (24h Change)
USDT
+1B
DAI
-19.2M
USDC
-78M
Chain Stablecoin Flows
Tron
+963.1M
Ethereum
+254.1M
BSC
-5.5M
Solana
+3.6M
Base
+1.8M
Asset Trend 24H 7D
BTC $63,710 -0.51% -0.6%
ETH $1,888 +0.72% 1.0%
SOL $76.23 +0.26% 3.3%
BNB $611.17 +1.77% 3.0%
Chain Volume (24h)
Chain Vol Change
Base $2.8B -12.3%
BSC $2.5B -14.0%
Solana $2.4B +4.8%
Ethereum $2.3B -11.6%
Arbitrum $2.2B -14.6%
🔮 Signal Intelligence
📊 PATTERN DETECTION
Significant Hourly Patterns
Asset Hour (UTC) Session Avg Return Win Rate
PEPE 14:00 NY -0.265% 27%
PEPE 7:00 Asia -0.252% 17%
AVAX 1:00 Asia +0.238% 53%
PEPE 22:00 Late -0.191% 27%
AVAX 3:00 Asia -0.176% 27%
SUI 22:00 Late -0.163% 47%
XRP 22:00 Late -0.157% 37%
PEPE 21:00 Late -0.153% 20%
Day-of-Week: Today is Wednesday
BTC +1.27% win 75%
ETH +1.65% win 75%
SOL +0.78% win 75%
BNB +0.58% win 75%
XRP +1.24% win 50%
DOGE +0.41% win 50%
AVAX -0.74% win 25%
LINK +1.24% win 75%
SUI +0.25% win 50%
PEPE -1.37% win 25%
Historical Setup Matches
BNB 2026-07-15 88% match 24h: +0.58% 48h: -1.82%
BNB 2026-07-30 88% match 24h: +2.62% 48h: +2.67%
BNB 2026-07-16 88% match 24h: -2.39% 48h: -2.05%
XRP 2026-07-31 100% match 24h: -1.64% 48h: +0.36%
XRP 2026-08-08 100% match 24h: +0.24% 48h: +0.26%
💰 FLOW ANALYSIS
BTC ETF Flow
$4.9M
7d: $713.8M
ETH ETF Flow
$-1.8M
7d: $228.6M
💥 LIQUIDATION INTELLIGENCE
BTC $165.4K 100% longs CASCADE
ETH $54.5K 100% longs CASCADE
Funding Extremes
ETH 1.0000% CROWDED LONG 1095% APR
BTC 0.5793% CROWDED LONG 634% APR
SOL -0.5760% CROWDED SHORT 631% APR
⚡ ARBITRAGE SCANNER
Options Signals
BTC BULLISH
P/C Ratio0.57
Max Pain$65,000 (+2.12%)
IV Skew 25d-2.7
ETH BULLISH
P/C Ratio0.53
Max Pain$1,950 (+1.5%)
IV Skew 25d6.61
🔊 SMART MONEY SIGNALS
Unusual Volume Detected
BNB 6:00 UTC 2.6x normal
📊 SIGNAL SCORECARD
Signal tracking started — scorecard builds over time.
⚡ THE EDGE
CONFLUENCE-SCORED ACTIONABLE EDGES · 97 SIGNALS EVALUATED
MARKET REGIME
🔵 Accumulation
CONFIDENCE
65%
Accumulation phases are characterized by low volatility and quiet institutional buying. Historically, they precede significant upward moves.
📉 Low Vol → Vol Stable F&G: 27 Funding: neutral Stablecoin: neutral
🧘
No clear confluence detected — all signal scores below threshold after regime adjustment. Standing aside is the edge today.
📊 Order Book Depth
BINANCE FUTURES — TOP 5 ASSETS
Asset Spread Bid Depth Ask Depth Ratio Imbalance
BTC 0.02 bps $22.2M $16.6M 1.34 🟢 buy-heavy
ETH 0.05 bps $37.2M $29.8M 1.25 🟢 buy-heavy
SOL 1.31 bps $46.3M $41.6M 1.11 ✅ balanced
BNB 0.16 bps $5.9M $4.3M 1.37 🟢 buy-heavy
Notable Walls (±2% of mid)
BTC Bid: 65.15 @ $63,624 ($4.1M) Ask: 11.49 @ $63,715 ($732K)
ETH Bid: 832 @ $1,882 ($1.6M) Ask: 723 @ $1,891 ($1.4M)
SOL Bid: 45256 @ $76 ($3.4M) Ask: 35460 @ $76.4 ($2.7M)
BNB Bid: 674 @ $606.47 ($408.7K) Ask: 555 @ $614.25 ($340.9K)
⚠️ Biggest imbalance: BNB — ratio 1.37 (buy-heavy)
⚡ Estimated Liquidation Levels
ESTIMATED — WEIGHTED BY BINANCE LONG/SHORT RATIOS
Leverage tiers: 5x–100x. OI split by live long/short account ratio.
BTC $63,710
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $6.9B │ 63% Long / 37% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$63,136
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~6.349% of OI ($439.5M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$64,283
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~3.6510000000000002% of OI ($252.7M)
ETH $1,888
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $4.4B │ 71% Long / 29% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$1,871
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~7.056% of OI ($310.3M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$1,905
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~2.944% of OI ($129.5M)
SOL $76.23
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $654M │ 69% Long / 31% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$75.54
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~6.851% of OI ($44.8M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$76.92
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~3.1490000000000005% of OI ($20.6M)
BNB $611.17
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $380M │ 64% Long / 36% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$605.67
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~6.381% of OI ($24.2M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$616.67
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~3.6189999999999998% of OI ($13.8M)
📊 Perpetual Basis (Spot vs Futures)
Contango (+) = futures premium = longs aggressive · Backwardation (−) = futures discount = shorts aggressive
Asset Spot Futures Basis Signal
BTC $63,709.58 $63,666.483 -0.0676% 📉 Backwardation
ETH $1,887.65 $1,886.313 -0.0708% 📉 Backwardation
SOL $76.23 $76.167 -0.0830% 📉 Backwardation
BNB $611.17 $611.21 +0.0065% ➡️ Neutral
Overall: Shorts dominant — bearish pressure
The Move
VC & News: • Crypto-friendly bank Erebor in talks for $1.5 billion fundraise at $9.5 billion valuation: FT — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/11/crypto-friendly-bank-erebor-in-talks-to-raise-usd1-5-billion-at-usd9-5-billion-valuation-ft • JPYC raises $38 million Series B led by major Japanese logistics firm AZ-COM Maruwa (9090) — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/06/jpyc-raises-usd38-million-series-b-led-by-major-japanese-logistics-firm-az-com-maruwa • XRP, ETH price news: Ripple-linked token leads drop as traders eye $70,000 bitcoin — https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/11/xrp-ether-lead-crypto-losses-as-traders-eye-usd70-000-bitcoin-next • CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Crypto News and Price Data — https://www.coindesk.com/ • T. Rowe Price defends memecoin exposure in new crypto ETF, calling it a blockchain 'stress test' — https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/06/why-trillion-dollar-asset-manager-t-rowe-price-put-memecoins-in-its-crypto-etf
Smart Money Flows
$
Crypto-friendly bank Erebor in talks for $1.5 billion fundraise at $9.5 billion valuation: FT — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/11/crypto-friendly-bank-erebor-in-talks-to-raise-usd1-5-billion-at-usd9-5-billion-valuation-ft
$
JPYC raises $38 million Series B led by major Japanese logistics firm AZ-COM Maruwa (9090) — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/06/jpyc-raises-usd38-million-series-b-led-by-major-japanese-logistics-firm-az-com-maruwa
$
XRP, ETH price news: Ripple-linked token leads drop as traders eye $70,000 bitcoin — https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/11/xrp-ether-lead-crypto-losses-as-traders-eye-usd70-000-bitcoin-next
Generational Wealth
No arb opportunities above threshold Top yields (Solana): SOL-USDC on gmtrade: 224.7% APY ($2M TVL) BTC-USDC on gmtrade: 177.4% APY ($2M TVL) ETH-USDC on gmtrade: 174.5% APY ($1M TVL) SOL-PUMP on orca-dex: 129.3% APY ($1M TVL) XAU-USDC on gmtrade: 104.9% APY ($2M TVL)
Stable Farms
SOL-USDCgmtrade 224.7% APY
BTC-USDCgmtrade 177.4% APY
ETH-USDCgmtrade 174.5% APY
📡 THE WIRE
Top crypto news · 208 articles from 8 sources
🏛️ Regulation 3 sources 10h ago
Regulators allege Goliath promised crypto liquidity-pool returns but instead paid earlier investors and funded its founder’s luxury spending.
CoinTelegraphBitcoin MagazineBitcoinWorld
🚀 Protocol 3 sources 19h ago
Supporters of the soft fork he championed split onto their own chain on Saturday, where it mined two blocks in eight hours and stopped.
CoinDeskDecryptBitcoin Magazine
🏛️ Regulation 2 sources 8h ago
New York sued Kalshi last month in a bid to block it from operating sports-related prediction markets.
CoinDeskBitcoinWorld
🏛️ Regulation 2 sources 13h ago
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tether clear the central banks liquidity bar—everything else, including XRP, stays off-limits for retail.
DecryptBitcoin Magazine
📊 Market 2 sources 18h ago
MoneyGram’s Ramps service now connects Solana wallets and applications to its global cash network, with Rift becoming the first wallet to integrate the service.
CoinTelegraphCoinDesk
🏛️ Regulation 2 sources 19h ago
The legal action against Kalshi focused on trademark infringement and injury to its reputation in addition to citing state authorities comparing the company’s contracts to gambling.
CoinTelegraphCoinDesk
🔐 Security 1 source just now
Harmony is working with exchanges to freeze funds and is preparing a patch after claims that 2.8 billion unauthorized ONE hit trading platforms.
CoinTelegraph
📊 Market 1 source just now
How volume, burn rate, and transactions played a role on the price charts.
AmbCrypto
🌐 Macro 1 source just now
The exchange is joining a tokenized stock market that has grown 600% in a year, though its products offer price exposure rather than share ownership.
CoinDesk
🌐 Macro 1 source just now
BitcoinWorld Copper, Gold, Platinum and Oil: What Is Driving Commodity Markets in 2025? Commodity markets are experiencing a complex mix of supply constraints, shifting demand, and macroeconomic uncertainty, with copper, gold, platinum, and oil all moving on distinct factors as of late 2025. These
BitcoinWorld
🌐 Macro 1 source just now
BitcoinWorld Solana Holds Above 50-Day EMA: ETF Inflows and MoneyGram Integration Strengthen Price Outlook Solana (SOL) is trading above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) as of March 5, 2026, with recent ETF inflows and the MoneyGram integration providing a supportive backdrop for the tok
BitcoinWorld
🚀 Protocol 1 source just now
BitcoinWorld Indian Rupee Slips Further as Oil Prices Extend Rally; US CPI Data Awaited The Indian rupee extended its decline against the US dollar on [current date], pressured by a sustained surge in global crude oil prices and cautious market sentiment ahead of the release of US consumer price in
BitcoinWorld
The Trench
📊 LAUNCHPAD MARKET
PumpFun (24h)
├ Created: 35,886 | Graduated: 1,056 (2.94%)
├ Volume: $558.9M | Traders: 425.3K
└ Market Share: 17.2%
PumpFun (7d / 30d)
├ 7d: 221.1K created → 7K graduated (3.19%)
└ 30d: 801.7K created → 27.3K graduated (3.4%)
Overall Market (24h)
├ Total Mints: 38,185 | Graduated: 2,957
├ Total Volume: $3.3B | Traders: ~547.6K
├ Active Launchpads: 59
└ Overall Grad Rate: 7.74%
Top 5 by Volume (24h)
1. met-dbc — $2.7B (82.7%) — 2K mints
2. pump.fun — $558.9M (17.2%) — 35.9K mints
3. letsbonk.fun — $2.1M (0.1%) — 62 mints
4. metadao — $1.3M (0.0%) — 0 mints
5. moonshot — $1.2M (0.0%) — 10 mints
Source: Jupiter API
Top Narratives/Meta
🔥 Trending Narratives (Binance)
Chonketha Token Verification Themes 🔥 $816.6K (6 tokens)
Top: Chonketha $-216.2K · Chonketha $545.8K · Chonketha $998.3K
TNOS Themes 🔥 $208.8K (6 tokens)
Top: TNOS $150.5K · TNOS $26.8K · TNOS $98.1K
Tokenized Trust Fund Themes 🔥 $198.7K (4 tokens)
Top: TTF $192.3K · TTF $8.3K · TTF $6.4K
Question Mark Giants 🔥 $195.3K (6 tokens)
Top: unity $5.6K · PUMPFUN $4K · PUMP $6.2K
Kiro Proposes 'Bot' Meme Trend Culture 🔥 $169.9K (6 tokens)
Top: BOT $54.5 · BOT $16.1 · Bot $-759.8
Alleged Grok Bot Meme Culture 🔥 $169.2K (6 tokens)
Top: BOT $3.7K · BOT $80.3 · BOT $601.4
Artificial Inu Claims $AI Top 5 on FOMO Themes 🔥 $95K (4 tokens)
Top: XST $39.2K · XST $44.2K · XST $11.6K
Source: Binance Web3
📣 Social Hype Leaderboard (Binance)
#1 SOL ⚪ Unknown
#2 PUMP ⚪ Unknown
#3 SPCX ⚪ Unknown
#4 RAY ⚪ Unknown
#5 ORANGE ⚪ Unknown
#6 JOBY ⚪ Unknown
#7 DEALER ⚪ Unknown
Source: Binance Web3 Social Pulse
Momentum Leaders
⚠️ No momentum leaders found
Active Chains
Base $2.8B -12.3%
BSC $2.5B -14.0%
Solana $2.4B +4.8%
Prediction Markets
🏛️ Politics
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 0% NO 100%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 68% NO 32%
🌐 Macro/Economy
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 37% NO 63%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
YES 86% NO 14%
CROWD VIEW
Politics: Bearish (1 bullish / 4 bearish / 0 split) · Macro: Mixed (1 bullish / 1 bearish / 0 split)
System Health
7D Win Rate
0%
Alerts (24h)
0
📊 Track Record📉 Declining
Win Rate
52%
112W / 103L
7D Rate
0%
Avg PnL
+1.5%
Streak
🔥 4
Best: 17
14D Rate
0%
Avg Resolution
2.7d
Total Calls
276
61 active
LONG
55%
70W / 58L · Avg +2.2%
SHORT
44%
33W / 42L · Avg +0.6%
KELLY PNL SIMULATION
Capital: $19.4K
Total: +94.05%
Win Rate: 67.59%
Max DD: 10.16%
Sharpe-like: 0.27
Trades: 290
PERFORMANCE BY ASSET
SYMBOL CALLS WIN RATE AVG PNL
SOL 58 55% +2.3%
BTC 57 54% +1.2%
ETH 55 60% +2.7%
BNB 45 36% -0.6%
MONTHLY TREND
41%
Feb 26
96 calls
53%
Mar 26
161 calls
61%
Apr 26
46 calls
100%
May 26
1 calls
ACTIVE POSITIONS (61)
SYM DIR ENTRY TARGET P&L STATUS DATE
AVAX SHORT $19.5 T: $18.5 — ⏳ 2026-04-23
PEPE SHORT $7.80e-6 T: $7.10e-6 — ⏳ 2026-04-22
DOGE SHORT $0.104 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-09
LINK SHORT $9 T: $8.7 — ⏳ 2026-04-09
DOGE SHORT $0.107 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-08
LINK LONG $9 T: $9.5 — ⏳ 2026-04-08
DOGE SHORT $0.105 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-05
LINK LONG $9 T: $9.5 — ⏳ 2026-04-05
DOGE SHORT $0.105 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-04
LINK LONG $8.75 T: $9.35 — ⏳ 2026-04-03
RECENT CALLS (215 total)
SYM DIR ENTRY ACTUAL P&L RESULT DATE
BTC LONG $78,000 $75,595 -3.1% ❌ 2026-04-23
ETH SHORT $2,350 $2,244 +4.5% ✅ 2026-04-23
SOL SHORT $86 $82.6 +4.0% ✅ 2026-04-23
BNB SHORT $637 $615.58 +3.4% ✅ 2026-04-23
BTC LONG $76,500 $80,959 +5.8% ✅ 2026-04-22
ETH SHORT $2,395 $2,290 +4.4% ✅ 2026-04-22
SOL SHORT $87.8 $82.6 +5.9% ✅ 2026-04-22
BNB SHORT $641 $615.58 +4.0% ✅ 2026-04-22
BTC LONG $70,500 $74,328 +5.4% ✅ 2026-04-09
ETH LONG $2,175 $2,361 +8.6% ✅ 2026-04-09
DATA SOURCES
[OK] Binance | [OK] Binance Charts | [OK] DeFi Llama | [OK] Birdeye Trench | [OK] Fear & Greed | [OK] Polymarket | [OK] Jupiter | [OK] Jupiter Launchpads | [OK] CoinGecko | [OK] AlphaSense | [OK] News Search | [OK] Order Book | [OK] Binance Web3 | [OK] Signal Intel | [OK] Signal Tracking | [OK] The Wire | [OK] Opportunity Research | [FAIL] AI Council | [OK] Moderator
Generated: 2026-08-12 06:16:00 UTC · Errors: 1