Daily Intel // Alpha Protocol

The Crypto
Morning Report

Friday 14 Aug London 07:16
⚠️ DATA STATUS — 1 SOURCE UNAVAILABLE
* AC AI Council Error: All council analysts failed
Sections affected by failed sources may show incomplete data or be absent from this report.
⚠️ Dan's View — council analysis failed — no views generated
Market Pulse
Fear & Greed
29
Fear
Global Voltage
$2.3T
Stablecoin Supply (24h Change)
USDC
-48.7M
DAI
-1.4M
USDT
-22.1M
Chain Stablecoin Flows
BSC
+527.8M
Tron
+128.3M
Ethereum
-85.2M
Solana
+37M
Base
+12.9M
Asset Trend 24H 7D
BTC $63,295 -0.85% -1.6%
ETH $1,880 -0.72% -1.2%
SOL $75.78 -0.90% 4.2%
BNB $609.49 -0.65% 2.9%
Chain Volume (24h)
Chain Vol Change
Base $2.9B -3.4%
Solana $2.7B +13.5%
BSC $2.6B -3.1%
Ethereum $2.4B -1.1%
Arbitrum $2.3B -2.1%
🔮 Signal Intelligence
📊 PATTERN DETECTION
Significant Hourly Patterns
Asset Hour (UTC) Session Avg Return Win Rate
PEPE 14:00 NY -0.3% 27%
AVAX 1:00 Asia +0.269% 57%
PEPE 22:00 Late -0.253% 27%
PEPE 7:00 Asia -0.241% 17%
PEPE 21:00 Late -0.187% 20%
AVAX 15:00 NY +0.17% 60%
SUI 22:00 Late -0.168% 47%
AVAX 3:00 Asia -0.164% 27%
Day-of-Week: Today is Friday
BTC -0.75% win 25%
ETH -1.59% win 0%
SOL -1.17% win 25%
BNB -0.37% win 25%
XRP -1.37% win 25%
DOGE -1.48% win 25%
AVAX -2.52% win 25%
LINK -0.92% win 50%
SUI -1.49% win 25%
PEPE -0.7% win 0%
Historical Setup Matches
XRP 2026-08-05 100% match 24h: -1.69% 48h: -3.62%
XRP 2026-08-07 100% match 24h: +0.58% 48h: +0.83%
XRP 2026-07-20 100% match 24h: +4.22% 48h: +3.73%
DOGE 2026-07-27 100% match 24h: -3.75% 48h: -2.57%
DOGE 2026-08-10 100% match 24h: +0.13% 48h: +2.37%
💰 FLOW ANALYSIS
BTC ETF Flow
$-131.1M
7d: $139.9M
ETH ETF Flow
$6.7M
7d: $200.4M
💥 LIQUIDATION INTELLIGENCE
BTC $310.4K 100% longs CASCADE
ETH $1.1K 86% longs CASCADE
Funding Extremes
BTC 1.0000% CROWDED LONG 1095% APR
ETH 0.7802% CROWDED LONG 854% APR
SOL 0.4267% CROWDED LONG 467% APR
⚡ ARBITRAGE SCANNER
Options Signals
BTC BULLISH
P/C Ratio0.56
Max Pain$65,000 (+2.21%)
IV Skew 25d3.48
ETH BULLISH
P/C Ratio0.53
Max Pain$1,950 (+3.81%)
IV Skew 25d18.26
📊 SIGNAL SCORECARD
Signal tracking started — scorecard builds over time.
⚡ THE EDGE
CONFLUENCE-SCORED ACTIONABLE EDGES · 98 SIGNALS EVALUATED
MARKET REGIME
🔵 Accumulation
CONFIDENCE
62%
Accumulation phases are characterized by low volatility and quiet institutional buying. Historically, they precede significant upward moves.
📉 Low Vol ↓ Vol Down F&G: 29 Funding: neutral Stablecoin: neutral
BTC Funding extreme — Bearish Signal
💡 LOW
ACTION Short BTC
ENTRY $63,295
TARGET $60,763 (-4.0%)
STOP $64,877 (+2.5%)
TF 4-12h
Funding extreme (crowded long 1.0000%). Liquidation cascade (100% longs wiped). ETF outflow $131M.
████░░░░░░ 43/100
Funding extremeLiquidation cascadeETF outflow $131MLiquidation risk: long-squeeze dominant
📊 Order Book Depth
BINANCE FUTURES — TOP 5 ASSETS
Asset Spread Bid Depth Ask Depth Ratio Imbalance
BTC 0.02 bps $15.9M $15.1M 1.05 ✅ balanced
ETH 0.05 bps $38.5M $26.7M 1.44 🟢 buy-heavy
SOL 1.32 bps $43.8M $36.9M 1.19 🟢 buy-heavy
BNB 0.16 bps $6.1M $5.5M 1.12 ✅ balanced
Notable Walls (±2% of mid)
BTC Bid: 8.85 @ $63,238 ($559.9K) Ask: 32.19 @ $63,266 ($2M)
ETH Bid: 1030 @ $1,875 ($1.9M) Ask: 607 @ $1,884 ($1.1M)
SOL Bid: 24646 @ $75 ($1.8M) Ask: 10980 @ $77 ($845.4K)
BNB Bid: 572 @ $606.78 ($347.2K) Ask: 620 @ $614.15 ($380.8K)
⚠️ Biggest imbalance: ETH — ratio 1.44 (buy-heavy)
⚡ Estimated Liquidation Levels
ESTIMATED — WEIGHTED BY BINANCE LONG/SHORT RATIOS
Leverage tiers: 5x–100x. OI split by live long/short account ratio.
BTC $63,295
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $7B │ 65% Long / 35% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$62,725
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~6.503% of OI ($452M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$63,864
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~3.497% of OI ($243.1M)
ETH $1,880
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $4.4B │ 71% Long / 29% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$1,864
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~7.143000000000001% of OI ($315.9M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$1,897
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~2.857% of OI ($126.4M)
SOL $75.78
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $642.8M │ 69% Long / 31% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$75.1
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~6.9350000000000005% of OI ($44.6M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$76.46
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~3.065% of OI ($19.7M)
BNB $609.49
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $369M │ 67% Long / 33% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$604
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~6.7059999999999995% of OI ($24.7M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$614.98
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~3.2940000000000005% of OI ($12.2M)
📊 Perpetual Basis (Spot vs Futures)
Contango (+) = futures premium = longs aggressive · Backwardation (−) = futures discount = shorts aggressive
Asset Spot Futures Basis Signal
BTC $63,294.52 $63,275.1 -0.0307% ➡️ Neutral
ETH $1,880.44 $1,879.462 -0.0520% 📉 Backwardation
SOL $75.78 $75.74 -0.0528% 📉 Backwardation
BNB $609.49 $609.74 +0.0410% ➡️ Neutral
Overall: Shorts dominant — bearish pressure
The Move
VC & News: • Crypto-friendly bank Erebor in talks for $1.5 billion fundraise at $9.5 billion valuation: FT — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/11/crypto-friendly-bank-erebor-in-talks-to-raise-usd1-5-billion-at-usd9-5-billion-valuation-ft • Sequoia and Wellington in talks to lead $750 million Kalshi funding round — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/13/kalshi-in-talks-with-sequoia-wellington-for-usd750-million-fund-raise-at-usd40-billion-valuation • CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Crypto News and Price Data — https://www.coindesk.com/ • Crypto Long & Short: How trapped collateral turns ordinary volatility into forced selling — https://www.coindesk.com/coindesk-indices/2026/08/12/crypto-long-and-short • Figure (FIGR) gains as revenue doubles, blockchain loan marketplace volumes surge — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/13/figure-revenue-doubles-as-blockchain-loan-marketplace-volumes-surge
Smart Money Flows
$
Crypto-friendly bank Erebor in talks for $1.5 billion fundraise at $9.5 billion valuation: FT — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/11/crypto-friendly-bank-erebor-in-talks-to-raise-usd1-5-billion-at-usd9-5-billion-valuation-ft
$
Sequoia and Wellington in talks to lead $750 million Kalshi funding round — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/13/kalshi-in-talks-with-sequoia-wellington-for-usd750-million-fund-raise-at-usd40-billion-valuation
$
CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Crypto News and Price Data — https://www.coindesk.com/
Generational Wealth
No arb opportunities above threshold Top yields (Solana): SOL-USDC on gmtrade: 240.8% APY ($2M TVL) WSOL-AVA on raydium-amm: 214.5% APY ($1M TVL) BTC-USDC on gmtrade: 200.9% APY ($2M TVL) ETH-USDC on gmtrade: 176.6% APY ($1M TVL) SOL-PUMP on orca-dex: 140.7% APY ($1M TVL)
Stable Farms
SOL-USDCgmtrade 240.8% APY
WSOL-AVAraydium-amm 214.5% APY
BTC-USDCgmtrade 200.9% APY
📡 THE WIRE
Top crypto news · 202 articles from 8 sources
🔐 Security 5 sources 17h ago
The wallet provider warned that thousands of users could potentially be at risk of phishing attempts, while advising that all devices, private keys and backups were safe.
CoinTelegraphCoinDeskDecryptAmbCryptoCoinpedia
🔐 Security 2 sources 7h ago
Bitcoin Red Team member Calle said Chinese models, including Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3, are finding bugs across Bitcoin’s open-source software.
DecryptBitcoinWorld
🏛️ Regulation 2 sources 9h ago
Bitcoin Magazine White House to Host Crypto Industry Execs Next Week: Report Crypto and prediction market bigwigs are set to gather at the White House next week, according to a Thursday report from POLITICO. The report, citing people with knowledge of the matter, said the industry officials would m
Bitcoin MagazineBitcoinWorld
🏛️ Regulation 2 sources 19h ago
More than a year after being indicted on fraud charges related to his activities at crypto company Delio, Jeong Sang-ho faces prison time in South Korea.
CoinTelegraphDecrypt
🚀 Protocol 1 source just now
The proposal could make it easier to trade ETFs tied to top cryptocurrencies.
AmbCrypto
🏛️ Regulation 1 source 1h ago
According to Financial Times, JPMorgan ended its banking relationship with Polymarket in late 2025 over regulatory concerns.
CoinDesk
📊 Market 1 source 1h ago
BA Labs had previously classified a proposed NUSD integration as higher risk because of its counterparty, operational and liquidity exposure.
CoinTelegraph
🏛️ Regulation 1 source 2h ago
New crypto regulations could reshape how South Korean users access offshore exchanges and move capital beyond domestic platforms.
AmbCrypto
🚀 Protocol 1 source 2h ago
BitcoinWorld Bithumb to Temporarily Halt POKT Deposits and Withdrawals for Network Upgrade South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb has announced a temporary suspension of deposits and withdrawals for Pocket Networks POKT token. The halt is scheduled to begin at 9:00 a.m. UTC on Aug. 18 to supp
BitcoinWorld
📊 Market 1 source 2h ago
BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Holds Strong, Ethereum Eyes Breakout, XRP Shows Recovery Signs: Price Analysis Bitcoin continues to hold key support levels, Ethereum is approaching a potential breakout, and XRP is showing early signs of recovery, according to recent market data as of March 18, 2025. The crypt
BitcoinWorld
📊 Market 1 source 2h ago
BitcoinWorld Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Extends Correction as Energy Supply Concerns Persist Silver prices extended their corrective decline on [current date], with XAG/USD trading lower as persistent energy supply concerns continued to influence market sentiment. The precious metal, often view
BitcoinWorld
📊 Market 1 source 2h ago
The post XRP Price Today: Whales Accumulate 72 Million XRP As Price Falls appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News XRP price is hovering around $1, but whale activity is giving the market a different story. While the token just recorded its weakest daily close since November 2024, large holders are
Coinpedia
The Trench
📊 LAUNCHPAD MARKET
PumpFun (24h)
├ Created: 35,035 | Graduated: 1,082 (3.09%)
├ Volume: $479.2M | Traders: 483.1K
└ Market Share: 14.6%
PumpFun (7d / 30d)
├ 7d: 232.9K created → 7.4K graduated (3.16%)
└ 30d: 830.3K created → 28.4K graduated (3.42%)
Overall Market (24h)
├ Total Mints: 37,334 | Graduated: 3,001
├ Total Volume: $3.3B | Traders: ~612.9K
├ Active Launchpads: 57
└ Overall Grad Rate: 8.04%
Top 5 by Volume (24h)
1. met-dbc — $2.8B (85.2%) — 2.1K mints
2. pump.fun — $479.2M (14.6%) — 35K mints
3. letsbonk.fun — $2.9M (0.1%) — 73 mints
4. moonshot — $1M (0.0%) — 22 mints
5. metadao — $661.9K (0.0%) — 0 mints
Source: Jupiter API
Top Narratives/Meta
🔥 Trending Narratives (Binance)
Question Mark Giants 🔥 $195K (6 tokens)
Top: unity $5.7K · PUMPFUN $3.7K · PUMP $6.2K
Kiro Proposes 'Bot' Meme Trend Culture 🔥 $169.9K (6 tokens)
Top: BOT $54.5 · BOT $16.1 · Bot $-759.8
Alleged Grok Bot Meme Culture 🔥 $169.2K (6 tokens)
Top: BOT $3.7K · BOT $80.3 · BOT $597
Alleged GTA Coin Launch Culture 🔥 $169K (6 tokens)
Top: GTA $45.3K · GTA $19.3K · GTA $623.2
NTDA Themes 🔥 $105.8K (4 tokens)
Top: NTDA $174.3K · NTDA $23.2K · NTDA $-33.2K
Alleged Modi Meme Coin Culture 🔥 $73.1K (6 tokens)
Top: Modi $65.4K · Modi $9.4K · Modi $531.6
Alleged Modi Meme Image Giants 🔥 $65.5K (5 tokens)
Top: Modi $65.3K · Modi $-369.1 · Modi $38.6
Source: Binance Web3
📣 Social Hype Leaderboard (Binance)
#1 SOL ⚪ Unknown
#2 BONK ⚪ Unknown
#3 PUMP ⚪ Unknown
#4 ANSEM ⚪ Unknown
#5 DEALER ⚪ Unknown
#6 BSOL ⚪ Unknown
#7 JIMOTHY ⚪ Unknown
Source: Binance Web3 Social Pulse
Momentum Leaders
⚠️ No momentum leaders found
Active Chains
Base $2.9B -3.4%
Solana $2.7B +13.5%
BSC $2.6B -3.1%
Prediction Markets
🏛️ Politics
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 70% NO 30%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 28% NO 72%
🌐 Macro/Economy
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 73% NO 27%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
YES 0% NO 100%
CROWD VIEW
Politics: Bearish (1 bullish / 4 bearish / 0 split) · Macro: Mixed (1 bullish / 1 bearish / 0 split)
System Health
7D Win Rate
0%
Alerts (24h)
0
📊 Track Record📉 Declining
Win Rate
52%
112W / 103L
7D Rate
0%
Avg PnL
+1.5%
Streak
🔥 4
Best: 17
14D Rate
0%
Avg Resolution
2.7d
Total Calls
276
61 active
LONG
55%
70W / 58L · Avg +2.2%
SHORT
44%
33W / 42L · Avg +0.6%
KELLY PNL SIMULATION
Capital: $19.4K
Total: +94.05%
Win Rate: 67.59%
Max DD: 10.16%
Sharpe-like: 0.27
Trades: 290
PERFORMANCE BY ASSET
SYMBOL CALLS WIN RATE AVG PNL
SOL 58 55% +2.3%
BTC 57 54% +1.2%
ETH 55 60% +2.7%
BNB 45 36% -0.6%
MONTHLY TREND
41%
Feb 26
96 calls
53%
Mar 26
161 calls
61%
Apr 26
46 calls
100%
May 26
1 calls
ACTIVE POSITIONS (61)
SYM DIR ENTRY TARGET P&L STATUS DATE
AVAX SHORT $19.5 T: $18.5 — ⏳ 2026-04-23
PEPE SHORT $7.80e-6 T: $7.10e-6 — ⏳ 2026-04-22
DOGE SHORT $0.104 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-09
LINK SHORT $9 T: $8.7 — ⏳ 2026-04-09
DOGE SHORT $0.107 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-08
LINK LONG $9 T: $9.5 — ⏳ 2026-04-08
DOGE SHORT $0.105 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-05
LINK LONG $9 T: $9.5 — ⏳ 2026-04-05
DOGE SHORT $0.105 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-04
LINK LONG $8.75 T: $9.35 — ⏳ 2026-04-03
RECENT CALLS (215 total)
SYM DIR ENTRY ACTUAL P&L RESULT DATE
BTC LONG $78,000 $75,595 -3.1% ❌ 2026-04-23
ETH SHORT $2,350 $2,244 +4.5% ✅ 2026-04-23
SOL SHORT $86 $82.6 +4.0% ✅ 2026-04-23
BNB SHORT $637 $615.58 +3.4% ✅ 2026-04-23
BTC LONG $76,500 $80,959 +5.8% ✅ 2026-04-22
ETH SHORT $2,395 $2,290 +4.4% ✅ 2026-04-22
SOL SHORT $87.8 $82.6 +5.9% ✅ 2026-04-22
BNB SHORT $641 $615.58 +4.0% ✅ 2026-04-22
BTC LONG $70,500 $74,328 +5.4% ✅ 2026-04-09
ETH LONG $2,175 $2,361 +8.6% ✅ 2026-04-09
DATA SOURCES
[OK] Binance | [OK] Binance Charts | [OK] DeFi Llama | [OK] Birdeye Trench | [OK] Fear & Greed | [OK] Polymarket | [OK] Jupiter | [OK] Jupiter Launchpads | [OK] CoinGecko | [OK] AlphaSense | [OK] News Search | [OK] Order Book | [OK] Binance Web3 | [OK] Signal Intel | [OK] Signal Tracking | [OK] The Wire | [OK] Opportunity Research | [FAIL] AI Council | [OK] Moderator
Generated: 2026-08-14 06:16:01 UTC · Errors: 1