Daily Intel // Alpha Protocol

The Crypto
Morning Report

Monday 20 Apr London 07:16
⚠️ DATA STATUS — 1 SOURCE UNAVAILABLE
* AC AI Council Error: All council analysts failed
Sections affected by failed sources may show incomplete data or be absent from this report.
⚠️ Dan's View — council analysis failed — no views generated
Market Pulse
Fear & Greed
29
Fear
Global Voltage
$2.6T
Stablecoin Supply (24h Change)
DAI
+31M
USDC
-316.9M
USDT
+351.3M
Chain Stablecoin Flows
Ethereum
-756.4M
Solana
-166.2M
Base
+113M
BSC
+23.8M
Tron
-313.6K
Asset Trend 24H 7D
BTC $74,298 -1.45% 5.0%
ETH $2,271 -2.30% 3.6%
SOL $83.89 -1.63% 2.9%
BNB $619.39 -0.23% 4.6%
Chain Volume (24h)
Chain Vol Change
Base $5.9B +59.3%
Ethereum $5B +63.2%
Arbitrum $5B +62.6%
Polygon $4.3B +80.0%
Monad $3.9B +61.4%
🔮 Signal Intelligence
📊 PATTERN DETECTION
Significant Hourly Patterns
Asset Hour (UTC) Session Avg Return Win Rate
PEPE 10:00 London -0.414% 17%
PEPE 19:00 NY +0.388% 53%
AVAX 11:00 London +0.32% 67%
LINK 11:00 London +0.31% 63%
LINK 10:00 London -0.296% 17%
AVAX 10:00 London -0.285% 27%
ETH 10:00 London -0.266% 27%
ETH 11:00 London +0.263% 70%
Day-of-Week: Today is Monday
BTC +0.71% win 50%
ETH +0.93% win 50%
SOL +0.66% win 50%
BNB +0.57% win 75%
XRP +0.72% win 50%
DOGE +0.77% win 50%
AVAX +1.81% win 75%
LINK +1.17% win 50%
SUI +0.42% win 50%
PEPE +1.38% win 50%
Historical Setup Matches
XRP 2026-04-12 100% match 24h: -0.33% 48h: +2.89%
XRP 2026-04-17 100% match 24h: +2.56% 48h: -1.2%
XRP 2026-04-11 100% match 24h: -1.23% 48h: -1.56%
DOGE 2026-04-11 100% match 24h: -1.61% 48h: -2.15%
DOGE 2026-04-17 100% match 24h: +0.82% 48h: -4.02%
💰 FLOW ANALYSIS
BTC ETF Flow
$663.9M
7d: $1.6B
ETH ETF Flow
$127.5M
7d: $426M
💥 LIQUIDATION INTELLIGENCE
BTC $681.5K 82% longs CASCADE
ETH $399.8K 100% longs CASCADE
Funding Extremes
BTC 0.5901% CROWDED LONG 646% APR
BNB 0.5854% CROWDED LONG 641% APR
SOL 0.1951% CROWDED LONG 214% APR
ETH -0.1714% CROWDED SHORT 188% APR
⚡ ARBITRAGE SCANNER
Options Signals
BTC BULLISH
P/C Ratio0.7
Max Pain$73,000 (-3.62%)
IV Skew 25d51.19
ETH BULLISH
P/C Ratio0.51
Max Pain$2,200 (-4.88%)
IV Skew 25d51.35
📊 SIGNAL SCORECARD (30 day)
Overall Accuracy
48.8%
83/170 signals correct
Best Performing
Intraday Pattern
83.3% accuracy
Worst Performing
Whale Flow
28.6% accuracy
Streak
0 correct
in a row
Signal Type Total Correct Accuracy
Intraday Pattern 12 10 83.3%
Historical Match 27 13 54.2%
Etf Flow 40 18 52.9%
Funding Extreme 65 27 48.2%
Options Signal 42 13 35.1%
Whale Flow 8 2 28.6%
⚡ THE EDGE
CONFLUENCE-SCORED ACTIONABLE EDGES · 134 SIGNALS EVALUATED
MARKET REGIME
🔵 Accumulation
CONFIDENCE
41%
Accumulation phases are characterized by low volatility and quiet institutional buying. Historically, they precede significant upward moves.
📉 Low Vol ↑ Vol Up F&G: 29 Funding: neutral Stablecoin: neutral
ETH Funding extreme — Bullish Signal
⚡ MEDIUM
ACTION Long ETH
ENTRY $2,271
TARGET $2,361 (+4.0%)
STOP $2,214 (-2.5%)
TF 4-12h
Funding extreme (crowded short -0.1714%). ETF inflow $127M. Options P/C ratio 0.51 (bullish).
██████░░░░ 58/100
Funding extremeETF inflow $127MOptions P/C ratio 0.51Order book buy-heavy
EDGE TRACK RECORD
Hit Rate: 19/39 (49%)
7d: 40%
30d: 41%
Avg Return: +2.55%
Best: arbitrage
arbitrage: 4/4 (100%) · asymmetric: 4/7 (57%) · pattern: 1/4 (25%) · smart-money: 10/24 (42%)
RECENT: 📉 BTC -1.4% (48/100) · 📉 ETH -2.3% (48/100) · 📉 BTC -2.3% (66/100) · ❌ ETH -3.6% (66/100) · 📉 BTC -0.3% (87/100)
📊 Order Book Depth
BINANCE FUTURES — TOP 5 ASSETS
Asset Spread Bid Depth Ask Depth Ratio Imbalance
BTC 0.01 bps $6.5M $8M 0.82 🔴 sell-heavy
ETH 0.04 bps $17.4M $12.6M 1.38 🟢 buy-heavy
SOL 1.19 bps $44.8M $38.3M 1.17 🟢 buy-heavy
BNB 0.16 bps $6.3M $5.4M 1.16 🟢 buy-heavy
Notable Walls (±2% of mid)
BTC Bid: 4.68 @ $74,220 ($347.3K) Ask: 5.14 @ $74,265 ($381.9K)
ETH Bid: 538 @ $2,269 ($1.2M) Ask: 272 @ $2,272 ($616.9K)
SOL Bid: 18436 @ $83.29 ($1.5M) Ask: 19330 @ $84.54 ($1.6M)
BNB Bid: 1083 @ $615 ($666.1K) Ask: 657 @ $623.23 ($409.4K)
⚠️ Biggest imbalance: ETH — ratio 1.38 (buy-heavy)
⚡ Estimated Liquidation Levels
ESTIMATED — WEIGHTED BY BINANCE LONG/SHORT RATIOS
Leverage tiers: 5x–100x. OI split by live long/short account ratio.
BTC $74,298
Balanced
OI: $7.1B │ 50% Long / 50% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$73,629
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~4.996% of OI ($354.2M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$74,966
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~5.0040000000000004% of OI ($354.7M)
ETH $2,271
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $4.9B │ 68% Long / 32% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$2,250
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~6.8229999999999995% of OI ($334.5M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$2,291
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~3.177% of OI ($155.7M)
SOL $83.89
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $773.3M │ 72% Long / 28% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$83.13
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~7.2379999999999995% of OI ($56M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$84.65
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~2.762% of OI ($21.4M)
BNB $619.39
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $333.4M │ 72% Long / 28% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$613.82
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~7.158% of OI ($23.9M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$624.96
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~2.842% of OI ($9.5M)
📊 Perpetual Basis (Spot vs Futures)
Contango (+) = futures premium = longs aggressive · Backwardation (−) = futures discount = shorts aggressive
Asset Spot Futures Basis Signal
BTC $74,297.53 $74,261.61 -0.0483% ➡️ Neutral
ETH $2,270.55 $2,269.437 -0.0490% ➡️ Neutral
SOL $83.89 $83.844 -0.0548% 📉 Backwardation
BNB $619.39 $619.718 +0.0530% 📈 Contango
Overall: Mixed signals
The Move
VC & News: • CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Crypto News and Price Data — https://www.coindesk.com • Latest Crypto News | CoinDesk — https://www.coindesk.com/latest-crypto-news • Crypto Long & Short: Fighting fraud in the digital age: why state-led identity is the future — https://www.coindesk.com/coindesk-indices/2026/04/15/crypto-long-and-short-fighting-fraud-in-the-digital-age-why-state-led-identity-is-the-future • CoinDesk 20 performance update: Ethereum (ETH) price rises 5.4% — https://www.coindesk.com/coindesk-indices/2026/04/14/coindesk-20-performance-update-ethereum-eth-price-rises-5-4 • U.S. lawmakers take another swing at crypto tax policy with revised bill — https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/04/13/u-s-lawmakers-take-another-swing-at-crypto-tax-policy-with-revised-bill
Smart Money Flows
$
CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Crypto News and Price Data — https://www.coindesk.com
$
Latest Crypto News | CoinDesk — https://www.coindesk.com/latest-crypto-news
$
Crypto Long & Short: Fighting fraud in the digital age: why state-led identity is the future — https://www.coindesk.com/coindesk-indices/2026/04/15/crypto-long-and-short-fighting-fraud-in-the-digital-age-why-state-led-identity-is-the-future
Generational Wealth
No arb opportunities above threshold Top yields (Solana): ZEC-USDC on orca-dex: 210.6% APY ($2M TVL) BOME-WSOL on raydium-amm: 190.1% APY ($11M TVL) WSOL-GRIFFAIN on raydium-amm: 172.3% APY ($2M TVL) CARDS-USDC on raydium-amm: 80.5% APY ($1M TVL) SOL-FARTCOIN on orca-dex: 77.7% APY ($2M TVL)
Stable Farms
ZEC-USDCorca-dex 210.6% APY
BOME-WSOLraydium-amm 190.1% APY
WSOL-GRIFFAINraydium-amm 172.3% APY
📡 THE WIRE
Top crypto news · 71 articles from 7 sources
🏛️ Regulation 1 source just now
BitcoinWorld Japanese Yen Plummets: US-Iran Tensions Fuel Market Chaos and Intervention Fears TOKYO, March 2025 – The Japanese Yen continues its pronounced weakening trajectory, a trend now significantly exacerbated by escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. Market anal
BitcoinWorld
📊 Market 1 source just now
With Bitcoin standing strong against gold and the SP 500, will BTC finally get the title of the 'ultimate safe haven'?
AmbCrypto
📊 Market 1 source just now
BitcoinWorld BTC Spot CVD Chart Reveals Critical Order Flow Dynamics for April 20 On April 20, 2025, the BTC/USDT spot market presented a compelling narrative through its order book dynamics, as detailed by the latest Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) chart. This analytical tool provides traders a
BitcoinWorld
🔐 Security 1 source just now
BitcoinWorld Ethereums Revolutionary 4-Year Blueprint: Vitalik Buterin Unveils Ambitious Scalability and Quantum Security Roadmap Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has unveiled a comprehensive four-year development blueprint that aims to fundamentally transform the worlds second-largest blockchain n
BitcoinWorld
📊 Market 1 source just now
BitcoinWorld Binance Weekend Trading Soars: CEO Reveals 300% Explosion in Traditional Asset Futures Volume In a significant development for global digital asset markets, Binance CEO Richard Teng announced a dramatic 300% increase in weekend trading activity for the exchanges traditional asset-linke
BitcoinWorld
📊 Market 1 source just now
BitcoinWorld Upbit PIEVERSE Listing: Strategic Expansion Boosts South Koreas Crypto Market Dominance SEOUL, South Korea – April 19, 2025 – Leading South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Upbit announced a significant market expansion today with its upcoming listing of PIEVERSE, scheduled for trading c
BitcoinWorld
🏛️ Regulation 1 source just now
BitcoinWorld ZachXBT Allegations Expose Memecores Shocking 90% Insider Supply, Triggering Market Plunge Prominent on-chain investigator ZachXBT has leveled serious allegations against the Memecore (M) project, claiming insiders control a staggering portion of the tokens supply. This explosive claim
BitcoinWorld
📊 Market 1 source just now
Bitcoin traded at $74,335 after Iran reimposed controls on the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, with the modest 1.6% pullback standing out against a 5.7% jump in Brent and a 1.2% drop in European equity futures.
CoinDesk
🏛️ Regulation 1 source just now
BitcoinWorld EUR/USD Forecast: Critical Battle at 100-Hour SMA as Euro Fights for Stability LONDON, March 2025 – The EUR/USD currency pair continues to navigate a critical technical juncture, trading just above the mid-1.1700s while market participants closely monitor the formidable resistance pose
BitcoinWorld
📊 Market 1 source just now
BitcoinWorld Pound Sterling Plunges: GBP/USD Hovers Near Critical 1.3500 as Fears Fuel US Dollar Surge LONDON, March 2025 – The Pound Sterling continues its downward trajectory against the US Dollar, trading precariously near the 1.3500 psychological threshold. Consequently, this persistent weaknes
BitcoinWorld
💰 Funding 1 source just now
BitcoinWorld India Gold Price Today: Gold Falls Sharply Amidst Global Economic Shifts, Bitcoin World Data Reveals Gold prices in India experienced a notable decline today, according to the latest market data compiled by Bitcoin World, signaling a shift in investor sentiment amidst evolving global e
BitcoinWorld
📊 Market 1 source 1h ago
BitcoinWorld Asian Currencies Plunge as Dollar Soars Amid Dangerous US-Iran Escalation Asian financial markets experienced significant pressure on Tuesday, March 18, 2025, as regional currencies weakened substantially against a resurgent US dollar. This dramatic shift followed renewed geopolitical
BitcoinWorld
The Trench
📊 LAUNCHPAD MARKET
PumpFun (24h)
├ Created: 21,683 | Graduated: 202 (0.93%)
├ Volume: $244.9M | Traders: 299.5K
└ Market Share: 85.7%
PumpFun (7d / 30d)
├ 7d: 165.4K created → 1.8K graduated (1.1%)
└ 30d: 715.3K created → 8.6K graduated (1.2%)
Overall Market (24h)
├ Total Mints: 23,676 | Graduated: 1,418
├ Total Volume: $285.8M | Traders: ~355.8K
├ Active Launchpads: 54
└ Overall Grad Rate: 5.99%
Top 5 by Volume (24h)
1. pump.fun — $244.9M (85.7%) — 21.7K mints
2. met-dbc — $28.3M (9.9%) — 1.3K mints
3. printr — $4.8M (1.7%) — 209 mints
4. letsbonk.fun — $3.9M (1.4%) — 216 mints
5. bags.fun — $1.4M (0.5%) — 79 mints
Source: Jupiter API
Top Narratives/Meta
🔥 Trending Narratives (Binance)
Mark-2-Marquette Themes 🔥 $146.9K (3 tokens)
Top: M2M $146.9K · M2M $0.1 · M2M $0.1
Peace and Conflict Philosophical Reflection Culture 🔥 $122.9K (6 tokens)
Top: PEACE $122.9K · PEACE $20.4 · PEACE $0
Trump says Iran war 'OVER' Culture 🔥 $114.6K (6 tokens)
Top: PEACE $122.9K · PEACE $20.4 · PEACE $0
Trump Comments on Iran War Culture 🔥 $114.6K (6 tokens)
Top: PEACE $122.9K · PEACE $-0.7 · PEACE $-13
Vance's Comments on Iran Culture 🔥 $114.5K (6 tokens)
Top: PEACE $122.9K · PEACE $-0.7 · PEACE $-13
XERO Themes 🔥 $108.4K (3 tokens)
Top: XERO $106.6K · XERO $1.8K · XERO $0
Tardi Culture 🔥 $87.2K (6 tokens)
Top: TARDI $89.9K · TARDI $-2.6K · TARDI $-8.5
Source: Binance Web3
📣 Social Hype Leaderboard (Binance)
#1 SOL ⚪ Unknown
#2 BULL ⚪ Unknown
#3 BONK ⚪ Unknown
#4 MSBT ⚪ Unknown
#5 AMC ⚪ Unknown
#6 BA ⚪ Unknown
#7 UNH ⚪ Unknown
Source: Binance Web3 Social Pulse
Momentum Leaders
⚠️ No momentum leaders found
Active Chains
Base $5.9B +59.3%
Ethereum $5B +63.2%
Arbitrum $5B +62.6%
Prediction Markets
📈 Stocks/Commodities
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?
YES 2% NO 98%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
YES 61% NO 39%
🏛️ Politics
Will PH win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
YES 2% NO 98%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?
YES 7% NO 93%
🌐 Macro/Economy
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
YES 0% NO 100%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
YES 94% NO 6%
CROWD VIEW
Stocks: Mixed (1 bullish / 1 bearish / 0 split) · Politics: Bearish (0 bullish / 5 bearish / 0 split) · Macro: Bearish (1 bullish / 2 bearish / 0 split)
System Health
7D Win Rate
0%
Alerts (24h)
0
📊 Track Record📈 Improving
Win Rate
51%
105W / 102L
7D Rate
63%
Avg PnL
+1.4%
Streak
—
Best: 17
14D Rate
79%
Avg Resolution
2.6d
Total Calls
266
59 active
LONG
55%
69W / 57L · Avg +2.2%
SHORT
39%
27W / 42L · Avg +0.3%
KELLY PNL SIMULATION
Capital: $18.4K
Total: +83.97%
Win Rate: 67.02%
Max DD: 10.6%
Sharpe-like: 0.26
Trades: 282
PERFORMANCE BY ASSET
SYMBOL CALLS WIN RATE AVG PNL
SOL 56 54% +2.3%
BTC 55 55% +1.1%
ETH 53 58% +2.7%
BNB 43 33% -0.8%
MONTHLY TREND
41%
Feb 26
96 calls
53%
Mar 26
161 calls
56%
Apr 26
39 calls
ACTIVE POSITIONS (59)
SYM DIR ENTRY TARGET P&L STATUS DATE
DOGE SHORT $0.104 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-09
LINK SHORT $9 T: $8.7 — ⏳ 2026-04-09
DOGE SHORT $0.107 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-08
LINK LONG $9 T: $9.5 — ⏳ 2026-04-08
DOGE SHORT $0.105 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-05
LINK LONG $9 T: $9.5 — ⏳ 2026-04-05
DOGE SHORT $0.105 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-04
LINK LONG $8.75 T: $9.35 — ⏳ 2026-04-03
LINK LONG $9 T: $9.45 — ⏳ 2026-04-01
DOGE SHORT $0.129 T: $0.118 — ⏳ 2026-04-01
RECENT CALLS (207 total)
SYM DIR ENTRY ACTUAL P&L RESULT DATE
BTC LONG $70,500 $74,328 +5.4% ✅ 2026-04-09
ETH LONG $2,175 $2,361 +8.6% ✅ 2026-04-09
SOL SHORT $82.3 $85.65 -4.1% ❌ 2026-04-09
BNB SHORT $601 $613.25 -2.0% ❌ 2026-04-09
BTC LONG $70,500 $74,328 +5.4% ✅ 2026-04-08
ETH LONG $2,220 $2,361 +6.4% ✅ 2026-04-08
SOL SHORT $84.5 $87.63 -3.7% ❌ 2026-04-08
BTC LONG $66,450 $69,309 +4.3% ✅ 2026-04-05
ETH SHORT $2,035 $2,137 -5.0% ❌ 2026-04-05
SOL SHORT $79.5 $82.03 -3.2% ❌ 2026-04-05
DATA SOURCES
[OK] Binance | [OK] Binance Charts | [OK] DeFi Llama | [OK] Birdeye Trench | [OK] Fear & Greed | [OK] Polymarket | [OK] Jupiter | [OK] Jupiter Launchpads | [OK] CoinGecko | [OK] AlphaSense | [OK] News Search | [OK] Order Book | [OK] Binance Web3 | [OK] Signal Intel | [OK] Signal Tracking | [OK] The Wire | [OK] Opportunity Research | [FAIL] AI Council | [OK] Moderator
Generated: 2026-04-20 06:16:02 UTC · Errors: 1