Daily Intel // Alpha Protocol

The Crypto
Morning Report

Friday 21 Aug London 07:15
⚠️ DATA STATUS — 1 SOURCE UNAVAILABLE
* AC AI Council Error: All council analysts failed
Sections affected by failed sources may show incomplete data or be absent from this report.
⚠️ Dan's View — council analysis failed — no views generated
Market Pulse
Fear & Greed
72
Greed
Global Voltage
$2.5T
Stablecoin Supply (24h Change)
USDC
+431.7M
DAI
-5.2M
USDT
+5.4M
Chain Stablecoin Flows
Ethereum
+201.6M
Solana
+132.8M
Tron
+128.2M
BSC
-55.1M
Base
+20.7M
Asset Trend 24H 7D
BTC $75,290 +8.54% 18.6%
ETH $2,366 +5.46% 25.5%
SOL $90.76 +7.02% 19.0%
BNB $665.03 +6.33% 8.9%
Chain Volume (24h)
Chain Vol Change
Base $5.4B -11.9%
BSC $4.7B -12.8%
Ethereum $4.6B -12.1%
Arbitrum $4.2B -15.1%
Robinhood Chain $4.1B -14.1%
🔮 Signal Intelligence
📊 PATTERN DETECTION
Significant Hourly Patterns
Asset Hour (UTC) Session Avg Return Win Rate
PEPE 15:00 NY +0.327% 53%
PEPE 9:00 London -0.314% 17%
XRP 15:00 NY +0.312% 70%
ETH 15:00 NY +0.31% 57%
AVAX 15:00 NY +0.304% 67%
AVAX 1:00 Asia +0.297% 63%
XRP 18:00 NY -0.276% 33%
DOGE 16:00 NY +0.268% 67%
Day-of-Week: Today is Friday
BTC -0.57% win 25%
ETH -0.81% win 0%
SOL -0.86% win 25%
BNB -0.03% win 25%
XRP -1.08% win 25%
DOGE -1.16% win 25%
AVAX -2.5% win 25%
LINK +0.14% win 75%
SUI -1.5% win 25%
PEPE -1.17% win 0%
Historical Setup Matches
BTC 2026-08-10 94% match 24h: -1.74% 48h: -2.09%
BTC 2026-08-09 94% match 24h: +0.58% 48h: -1.17%
BTC 2026-08-08 94% match 24h: -0.21% 48h: +0.37%
ETH 2026-08-09 94% match 24h: +0.33% 48h: -2.14%
ETH 2026-08-10 94% match 24h: -2.46% 48h: -1.74%
💰 FLOW ANALYSIS
BTC ETF Flow
$517.2M
7d: $759M
ETH ETF Flow
$220.8M
7d: $526.3M
💥 LIQUIDATION INTELLIGENCE
BTC $4.2M 0% longs CASCADE
ETH $168.6K 1% longs CASCADE
Funding Extremes
SOL 1.0000% CROWDED LONG 1095% APR
BNB 0.5251% CROWDED LONG 575% APR
BTC -0.2984% CROWDED SHORT 327% APR
ETH 0.2304% CROWDED LONG 252% APR
⚡ ARBITRAGE SCANNER
Options Signals
BTC BULLISH
P/C Ratio0.56
Max Pain$67,000 (-11.79%)
IV Skew 25d60.61
ETH BULLISH
P/C Ratio0.55
Max Pain$2,000 (-17.12%)
IV Skew 25d19.33
🔊 SMART MONEY SIGNALS
Unusual Volume Detected
SUI 6:00 UTC 2.8x normal
📊 SIGNAL SCORECARD
Signal tracking started — scorecard builds over time.
⚡ THE EDGE
CONFLUENCE-SCORED ACTIONABLE EDGES · 117 SIGNALS EVALUATED
MARKET REGIME
🟢 Markup
CONFIDENCE
43%
Markup phase — trending market with increasing participation. Typically follows accumulation and continues until distribution signals appear.
📉 Low Vol → Vol Stable F&G: 72 Funding: neutral Stablecoin: neutral
BTC Funding extreme — Bullish Signal
🎯 HIGH
ACTION Long BTC
ENTRY $75,290
TARGET $79,054 (+5.0%)
STOP $73,784 (-2.0%)
TF 4-12h
Funding extreme (crowded short -0.2984%). Liquidation cascade (100% shorts wiped). ETF inflow $517M.
█████████░ 90/100
Funding extremeLiquidation cascadeETF inflow $517MOptions P/C ratio 0.56Order book buy-heavy
ETH Liquidation cascade — Bullish Signal
💡 LOW
ACTION Long ETH
ENTRY $2,366
TARGET $2,437 (+3.0%)
STOP $2,295 (-3.0%)
TF 4-12h
Liquidation cascade (99% shorts wiped). ETF inflow $221M. Options P/C ratio 0.55 (bullish).
████░░░░░░ 44/100
Liquidation cascadeETF inflow $221MOptions P/C ratio 0.55
📊 Order Book Depth
BINANCE FUTURES — TOP 5 ASSETS
Asset Spread Bid Depth Ask Depth Ratio Imbalance
BTC 0.01 bps $13.1M $8.3M 1.59 🟢 buy-heavy
ETH 0.04 bps $23M $25.3M 0.91 ✅ balanced
SOL 1.1 bps $38.4M $36.7M 1.05 ✅ balanced
BNB 0.15 bps $5.1M $9.4M 0.55 🔴 sell-heavy
Notable Walls (±2% of mid)
BTC Bid: 28.60 @ $75,250 ($2.2M) Ask: 5.86 @ $75,309 ($441.2K)
ETH Bid: 1582 @ $2,362 ($3.7M) Ask: 677 @ $2,370 ($1.6M)
SOL Bid: 14794 @ $89.51 ($1.3M) Ask: 23312 @ $92 ($2.1M)
BNB Bid: 527 @ $661.73 ($349K) Ask: 589 @ $669 ($393.7K)
⚠️ Biggest imbalance: BTC — ratio 1.59 (buy-heavy)
⚡ Estimated Liquidation Levels
ESTIMATED — WEIGHTED BY BINANCE LONG/SHORT RATIOS
Leverage tiers: 5x–100x. OI split by live long/short account ratio.
BTC $75,290
Balanced
OI: $8.2B │ 50% Long / 50% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$74,612
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~5% of OI ($411.7M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$75,967
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~5% of OI ($411.7M)
ETH $2,366
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $5.6B │ 69% Long / 31% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$2,345
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~6.938999999999999% of OI ($388M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$2,387
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~3.061% of OI ($171.2M)
SOL $90.76
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $744.8M │ 67% Long / 33% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$89.94
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~6.672000000000001% of OI ($49.7M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$91.58
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~3.328% of OI ($24.8M)
BNB $665.03
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $406.4M │ 72% Long / 28% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$659.04
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~7.183000000000001% of OI ($29.2M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$671.02
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~2.817% of OI ($11.4M)
📊 Perpetual Basis (Spot vs Futures)
Contango (+) = futures premium = longs aggressive · Backwardation (−) = futures discount = shorts aggressive
Asset Spot Futures Basis Signal
BTC $75,289.61 $75,295.3 +0.0076% ➡️ Neutral
ETH $2,365.88 $2,366.24 +0.0152% ➡️ Neutral
SOL $90.76 $90.817 +0.0633% 📈 Contango
BNB $665.03 $665.74 +0.1068% 📈 Contango
Overall: Longs dominant — bullish pressure
The Move
VC & News: • Wall Street rewrote crypto's rules with $11.2 billion in checks — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/15/the-usd11-2-billion-in-2026-funding-that-killed-crypto-s-permissionless-era • CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Crypto News and Price Data — https://www.coindesk.com/ • Metaplanet launching U.S. bitcoin treasury company through $135 million nanocap deal — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/18/japan-s-metaplanet-launching-u-s-bitcoin-treasury-company-through-usd135-million-nanocap-deal • Why the world’s second-largest Bitcoin mining power is shutting down rigs in its capital city — https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/08/15/why-the-world-s-second-largest-bitcoin-mining-power-is-shutting-down-rigs-in-its-capital-city • Live updates: Bitcoin extends gains as Bessent suggests more Treasury intervention — https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/08/20/live-updates-bitcoin-etfs-draw-usd517-million-ether-pulls-usd189-million-in-biggest-inflows-in-months
Smart Money Flows
$
Wall Street rewrote crypto's rules with $11.2 billion in checks — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/15/the-usd11-2-billion-in-2026-funding-that-killed-crypto-s-permissionless-era
$
CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Crypto News and Price Data — https://www.coindesk.com/
$
Metaplanet launching U.S. bitcoin treasury company through $135 million nanocap deal — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/08/18/japan-s-metaplanet-launching-u-s-bitcoin-treasury-company-through-usd135-million-nanocap-deal
Generational Wealth
No arb opportunities above threshold Top yields (Solana): SOL-PUMP on orca-dex: 400.8% APY ($1M TVL) SOL-HYPE on orca-dex: 287.4% APY ($2M TVL) BTC-USDC on gmtrade: 259.3% APY ($1M TVL) WSOL-AVA on raydium-amm: 202.6% APY ($1M TVL) ETH-USDC on gmtrade: 181.5% APY ($1M TVL)
Stable Farms
SOL-PUMPorca-dex 400.8% APY
SOL-HYPEorca-dex 287.4% APY
BTC-USDCgmtrade 259.3% APY
📡 THE WIRE
Top crypto news · 193 articles from 8 sources
🔐 Security 2 sources 1h ago
The token touched $0.004126 minutes before the network stopped producing blocks, while MANTRA later said an attacker exploited a vulnerability in software used by the chain.
CoinTelegraphCoinDesk
🏛️ Regulation 2 sources 11h ago
The CFTC chair said staff is already exploring a crypto market structure framework and could move quickly to propose rules if Congress fails to act.
DecryptBitcoinWorld
📊 Market 1 source just now
INJ is in a tight spot right now with several factors contradicting themselves.
AmbCrypto
🏛️ Regulation 1 source just now
Need to know what happened in crypto today? Here is the latest news on daily trends and events impacting Bitcoin price, blockchain, DeFi, Web3 and crypto regulation.
CoinTelegraph
🏛️ Regulation 1 source just now
The proposal would let the FIU investigate suspected violations and refer unregistered crypto operators directly to law enforcement.
CoinTelegraph
💰 Funding 1 source just now
Clearpool and Cicada Partners are building an institutional lending product using RLUSD, though the XRP Ledger features underpinning it are still awaiting activation.
CoinDesk
📊 Market 1 source 1h ago
Most of its $89.3 million balance sheet remained tied to digital assets, staking and DeFi positions. The post BTCS used Ethereum to repay Aave debt and ended Q2 with just $317,000 in cash appeared first on CryptoSlate.
CryptoSlate
📊 Market 1 source 1h ago
OG memecoins have been enjoying a field day this week.
AmbCrypto
🔐 Security 1 source 1h ago
BitcoinWorld DOJ Charges Five Iran-Based Hackers in HBO Breach Involving $6M Bitcoin Demand The U.S. Department of Justice has expanded its case against members of the Iran-based Mabna Institute, adding charges against eight individuals and linking five of them to the 2017 hack of HBO that included
BitcoinWorld
📊 Market 1 source 1h ago
BitcoinWorld Bitcoins Rally Backed by Strong Holder Base: Analyst Points to 2M BTC Accumulated at $62K-$64K Bitcoins recent sharp rally from $64,000 to $75,000 was underpinned by a robust holder structure, according to crypto analyst Murphy. The analyst highlighted that over 2 million BTC were accu
BitcoinWorld
📊 Market 1 source 1h ago
BitcoinWorld Bithumb Adjusts NEXO KRW Listing Schedule to 6:00 UTC South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb has revised the scheduled listing time for NEXO in the Korean won (KRW) market. The exchange originally planned to open trading at 4:00 a.m. UTC today but has now pushed the go-live time
BitcoinWorld
📊 Market 1 source 1h ago
BitcoinWorld EUR/JPY Advances Toward 186.00 as Bullish Momentum Persists EUR/JPY extended its upward move, trading near 186.00 during the latest session, as bullish momentum continues to dominate the cross. The pair has been supported by a combination of a firmer euro and persistent yen weakness, k
BitcoinWorld
The Trench
📊 LAUNCHPAD MARKET
PumpFun (24h)
├ Created: 34,883 | Graduated: 1,113 (3.19%)
├ Volume: $562.6M | Traders: 663.6K
└ Market Share: 13.3%
PumpFun (7d / 30d)
├ 7d: 233.3K created → 7.5K graduated (3.23%)
└ 30d: 910.6K created → 31.3K graduated (3.44%)
Overall Market (24h)
├ Total Mints: 37,533 | Graduated: 3,371
├ Total Volume: $4.2B | Traders: ~827.5K
├ Active Launchpads: 56
└ Overall Grad Rate: 8.98%
Top 5 by Volume (24h)
1. met-dbc — $3.7B (86.4%) — 2.4K mints
2. pump.fun — $562.6M (13.3%) — 34.9K mints
3. letsbonk.fun — $4.3M (0.1%) — 131 mints
4. metadao — $3.3M (0.1%) — 0 mints
5. moonshot — $2M (0.0%) — 19 mints
Source: Jupiter API
Top Narratives/Meta
🔥 Trending Narratives (Binance)
UOTF Themes 🔥 $896.6K (6 tokens)
Top: UOTF $464.1K · UOTF $327.3K · UOTF $347.6K
RST Themes 🔥 $582.2K (4 tokens)
Top: RST $646.7K · RST $15.3K · RST $-79.8K
Solana Meme Token $USWS Analysis Culture 🔥 $471.3K (3 tokens)
Top: USWS $17.4K · USWS $4.3K · USWS $449.6K
XTAL Themes 🔥 $380.6K (3 tokens)
Top: XTAL $478.2K · XTAL $-97.6K · XTAL $0.1
National Trump Digital Accounts Themes 🔥 $288.9K (6 tokens)
Top: NTDA $351.3K · NTDA $2.2K · NTDA $44.1K
UOTF Themes 🔥 $256.4K (6 tokens)
Top: UOTF $534.4K · UOTF $456K · UOTF $-261.9K
AAPL Themes 🔥 $234.4K (6 tokens)
Top: AAPL $1.5K · AAPL $1.4K · AAPL $2K
Source: Binance Web3
📣 Social Hype Leaderboard (Binance)
#1 SPCX ⚪ Unknown
#2 SOL ⚪ Unknown
#3 ANSEM ⚪ Unknown
#4 TROLL ⚪ Unknown
#5 POPCAT ⚪ Unknown
#6 BONK ⚪ Unknown
#7 UNITREE ⚪ Unknown
Source: Binance Web3 Social Pulse
Momentum Leaders
⚠️ No momentum leaders found
Active Chains
Base $5.4B -11.9%
BSC $4.7B -12.8%
Ethereum $4.6B -12.1%
Prediction Markets
🏛️ Politics
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 71% NO 29%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 28% NO 72%
🌐 Macro/Economy
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 1% NO 99%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
YES 86% NO 14%
CROWD VIEW
Politics: Bearish (1 bullish / 4 bearish / 0 split) · Macro: Mixed (1 bullish / 1 bearish / 0 split)
System Health
7D Win Rate
0%
Alerts (24h)
0
📊 Track Record📉 Declining
Win Rate
52%
112W / 103L
7D Rate
0%
Avg PnL
+1.5%
Streak
🔥 4
Best: 17
14D Rate
0%
Avg Resolution
2.7d
Total Calls
276
61 active
LONG
55%
70W / 58L · Avg +2.2%
SHORT
44%
33W / 42L · Avg +0.6%
KELLY PNL SIMULATION
Capital: $19.4K
Total: +94.05%
Win Rate: 67.59%
Max DD: 10.16%
Sharpe-like: 0.27
Trades: 290
PERFORMANCE BY ASSET
SYMBOL CALLS WIN RATE AVG PNL
SOL 58 55% +2.3%
BTC 57 54% +1.2%
ETH 55 60% +2.7%
BNB 45 36% -0.6%
MONTHLY TREND
41%
Feb 26
96 calls
53%
Mar 26
161 calls
61%
Apr 26
46 calls
100%
May 26
1 calls
ACTIVE POSITIONS (61)
SYM DIR ENTRY TARGET P&L STATUS DATE
AVAX SHORT $19.5 T: $18.5 — ⏳ 2026-04-23
PEPE SHORT $7.80e-6 T: $7.10e-6 — ⏳ 2026-04-22
DOGE SHORT $0.104 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-09
LINK SHORT $9 T: $8.7 — ⏳ 2026-04-09
DOGE SHORT $0.107 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-08
LINK LONG $9 T: $9.5 — ⏳ 2026-04-08
DOGE SHORT $0.105 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-05
LINK LONG $9 T: $9.5 — ⏳ 2026-04-05
DOGE SHORT $0.105 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-04
LINK LONG $8.75 T: $9.35 — ⏳ 2026-04-03
RECENT CALLS (215 total)
SYM DIR ENTRY ACTUAL P&L RESULT DATE
BTC LONG $78,000 $75,595 -3.1% ❌ 2026-04-23
ETH SHORT $2,350 $2,244 +4.5% ✅ 2026-04-23
SOL SHORT $86 $82.6 +4.0% ✅ 2026-04-23
BNB SHORT $637 $615.58 +3.4% ✅ 2026-04-23
BTC LONG $76,500 $80,959 +5.8% ✅ 2026-04-22
ETH SHORT $2,395 $2,290 +4.4% ✅ 2026-04-22
SOL SHORT $87.8 $82.6 +5.9% ✅ 2026-04-22
BNB SHORT $641 $615.58 +4.0% ✅ 2026-04-22
BTC LONG $70,500 $74,328 +5.4% ✅ 2026-04-09
ETH LONG $2,175 $2,361 +8.6% ✅ 2026-04-09
DATA SOURCES
[OK] Binance | [OK] Binance Charts | [OK] DeFi Llama | [OK] Birdeye Trench | [OK] Fear & Greed | [OK] Polymarket | [OK] Jupiter | [OK] Jupiter Launchpads | [OK] CoinGecko | [OK] AlphaSense | [OK] News Search | [OK] Order Book | [OK] Binance Web3 | [OK] Signal Intel | [OK] Signal Tracking | [OK] The Wire | [OK] Opportunity Research | [FAIL] AI Council | [OK] Moderator
Generated: 2026-08-21 06:15:57 UTC · Errors: 1