Daily Intel // Alpha Protocol

The Crypto
Morning Report

Friday 17 Jul London 07:15
⚠️ DATA STATUS — 1 SOURCE UNAVAILABLE
* AC AI Council Error: All council analysts failed
Sections affected by failed sources may show incomplete data or be absent from this report.
⚠️ Dan's View — council analysis failed — no views generated
Market Pulse
Fear & Greed
27
Fear
Global Voltage
$2.2T
Stablecoin Supply (24h Change)
DAI
-5.2M
USDC
+64.5M
USDT
-29.4M
Chain Stablecoin Flows
BSC
+477.4M
Solana
+426.3M
Ethereum
-154.4M
Tron
+113.4M
Base
+11.3M
Asset Trend 24H 7D
BTC $62,827 -3.14% -0.6%
ETH $1,827 -5.05% 4.7%
SOL $74.56 -3.72% -4.5%
BNB $568.13 -2.58% -0.1%
Chain Volume (24h)
Chain Vol Change
Base $3.5B -14.6%
BSC $3B -18.5%
Ethereum $2.9B -18.5%
Arbitrum $2.9B -19.6%
Monad $2.6B -19.5%
🔮 Signal Intelligence
📊 PATTERN DETECTION
Significant Hourly Patterns
Asset Hour (UTC) Session Avg Return Win Rate
PEPE 13:00 London +0.312% 63%
PEPE 21:00 Late +0.242% 37%
PEPE 6:00 Asia -0.227% 17%
SUI 8:00 London -0.197% 50%
PEPE 16:00 NY -0.194% 37%
PEPE 5:00 Asia -0.186% 30%
SUI 3:00 Asia +0.181% 67%
SOL 8:00 London -0.179% 43%
Day-of-Week: Today is Friday
BTC -0.24% win 50%
ETH -0.06% win 50%
SOL +0.54% win 75%
BNB -0.05% win 50%
XRP -0.78% win 50%
DOGE -0.22% win 50%
AVAX -2.75% win 50%
LINK +0.34% win 50%
SUI -1.12% win 25%
PEPE -1.47% win 50%
Historical Setup Matches
BTC 2026-06-26 76% match 24h: +0.03% 48h: -0.52%
BTC 2026-07-13 76% match 24h: -0.67% 48h: +2.48%
BTC 2026-06-25 76% match 24h: -2.23% 48h: -2.2%
ETH 2026-07-13 75% match 24h: -0.36% 48h: +4.61%
ETH 2026-07-12 75% match 24h: -0.62% 48h: -0.98%
💰 FLOW ANALYSIS
BTC ETF Flow
$79.2M
7d: $-146.3M
ETH ETF Flow
$-28M
7d: $105.5M
💥 LIQUIDATION INTELLIGENCE
BTC $2.9M 65% longs CASCADE
ETH $216.7K 92% longs CASCADE
Funding Extremes
BTC 0.9815% CROWDED LONG 1075% APR
ETH 0.8926% CROWDED LONG 977% APR
BNB 0.6849% CROWDED LONG 750% APR
SOL 0.3464% CROWDED LONG 379% APR
⚡ ARBITRAGE SCANNER
Options Signals
BTC BULLISH
P/C Ratio0.51
Max Pain$65,000 (+3.18%)
IV Skew 25d14.34
ETH BULLISH
P/C Ratio0.59
Max Pain$1,875 (+2.69%)
IV Skew 25d102.45
📊 SIGNAL SCORECARD
Signal tracking started — scorecard builds over time.
⚡ THE EDGE
CONFLUENCE-SCORED ACTIONABLE EDGES · 105 SIGNALS EVALUATED
MARKET REGIME
🔵 Accumulation
CONFIDENCE
79%
Accumulation phases are characterized by low volatility and quiet institutional buying. Historically, they precede significant upward moves.
📉 Low Vol → Vol Stable F&G: 27 Funding: neutral Stablecoin: neutral
🧘
No clear confluence detected — all signal scores below threshold after regime adjustment. Standing aside is the edge today.
📊 Order Book Depth
BINANCE FUTURES — TOP 5 ASSETS
Asset Spread Bid Depth Ask Depth Ratio Imbalance
BTC 0.02 bps $13.2M $18.8M 0.70 🔴 sell-heavy
ETH 0.05 bps $28.4M $28.4M 1.00 ✅ balanced
SOL 1.34 bps $40.7M $36.4M 1.12 ✅ balanced
BNB 0.18 bps $6.3M $5.1M 1.25 🟢 buy-heavy
Notable Walls (±2% of mid)
BTC Bid: 22.84 @ $62,740 ($1.4M) Ask: 26.57 @ $62,806 ($1.7M)
ETH Bid: 2247 @ $1,826 ($4.1M) Ask: 596 @ $1,829 ($1.1M)
SOL Bid: 14305 @ $74.2 ($1.1M) Ask: 12545 @ $75.49 ($947K)
BNB Bid: 1499 @ $565 ($846.7K) Ask: 418 @ $573.57 ($239.8K)
⚠️ Biggest imbalance: BTC — ratio 0.70 (sell-heavy)
⚡ Estimated Liquidation Levels
ESTIMATED — WEIGHTED BY BINANCE LONG/SHORT RATIOS
Leverage tiers: 5x–100x. OI split by live long/short account ratio.
BTC $62,827
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $6.4B │ 62% Long / 38% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$62,261
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~6.196000000000001% of OI ($397.4M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$63,392
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~3.8040000000000003% of OI ($244M)
ETH $1,827
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $4.2B │ 68% Long / 32% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$1,811
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~6.769% of OI ($282.9M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$1,844
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~3.231% of OI ($135M)
SOL $74.56
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $656.9M │ 72% Long / 28% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$73.89
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~7.231% of OI ($47.5M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$75.23
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~2.769% of OI ($18.2M)
BNB $568.13
⚠️ Long Squeeze Risk
OI: $331.8M │ 75% Long / 25% Short
NEAREST LONG LIQ
$563.02
-0.9% from spot · 100x · ~7.545% of OI ($25M)
NEAREST SHORT LIQ
$573.24
+0.9% from spot · 100x · ~2.455% of OI ($8.1M)
📊 Perpetual Basis (Spot vs Futures)
Contango (+) = futures premium = longs aggressive · Backwardation (−) = futures discount = shorts aggressive
Asset Spot Futures Basis Signal
BTC $62,826.8 $62,772.801 -0.0859% 📉 Backwardation
ETH $1,827.28 $1,826.5 -0.0427% ➡️ Neutral
SOL $74.56 $74.487 -0.0979% 📉 Backwardation
BNB $568.13 $568.28 +0.0264% ➡️ Neutral
Overall: Shorts dominant — bearish pressure
The Move
VC & News: • Crypto.com lands $400 million investment from Citadel Securities at $20 billion valuation — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/07/16/citadel-securities-invests-usd400-million-in-crypto-com-valuing-exchange-at-usd20-billion • CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Crypto News and Price Data — https://www.coindesk.com/ • Crypto brokerage firm Alpaca raises $135 million for tokenized stock infrastructure — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/07/16/crypto-brokerage-firm-alpaca-raises-usd135-million-for-tokenized-stock-infrastructure • Tether invests $20 million in Argentine neobank Ualá as it expands Latin America push — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/07/16/tether-invests-usd20-million-in-argentine-neobank-uala-as-it-expands-latin-america-push • Finance | CoinDesk — https://www.coindesk.com/business
Smart Money Flows
$
Crypto.com lands $400 million investment from Citadel Securities at $20 billion valuation — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/07/16/citadel-securities-invests-usd400-million-in-crypto-com-valuing-exchange-at-usd20-billion
$
CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Crypto News and Price Data — https://www.coindesk.com/
$
Crypto brokerage firm Alpaca raises $135 million for tokenized stock infrastructure — https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/07/16/crypto-brokerage-firm-alpaca-raises-usd135-million-for-tokenized-stock-infrastructure
Generational Wealth
No arb opportunities above threshold Top yields (Solana): XAG-USDC on gmtrade: 109.1% APY ($3M TVL) SOL-HYPE on orca-dex: 107.2% APY ($1M TVL) XAU-USDC on gmtrade: 98.4% APY ($4M TVL) ETH-USDC on gmtrade: 95.4% APY ($1M TVL) SOL-USDC on gmtrade: 89.4% APY ($2M TVL)
Stable Farms
XAG-USDCgmtrade 109.1% APY
SOL-HYPEorca-dex 107.2% APY
XAU-USDCgmtrade 98.4% APY
📡 THE WIRE
Top crypto news · 111 articles from 8 sources
💰 Funding 2 sources 9h ago
Crypto exchanges have increasingly positioned themselves as bridges between digital asset markets and traditional finance.
CoinTelegraphBitcoin Magazine
🏛️ Regulation 2 sources 12h ago
The Visa Stablecoin Platform will let financial institutions integrate stablecoin payments and treasury operations into Visas existing network.
DecryptAmbCrypto
🏛️ Regulation 2 sources 21h ago
The nonbinding resolution said the disgraced FTX founder should under no circumstances receive clemency.
DecryptBitcoin Magazine
🏛️ Regulation 2 sources 21h ago
Ualá’s CEO clarified Tether is acting solely as a financial investor, citing current regional regulations preventing any immediate USDT integration.
CoinTelegraphCoinDesk
🏛️ Regulation 1 source just now
Need to know what happened in crypto today? Here is the latest news on daily trends and events impacting Bitcoin price, blockchain, DeFi, Web3 and crypto regulation.
CoinTelegraph
📊 Market 1 source just now
“Over time the economic incentives will drive $DOG Mode’s adoption and force Bitcoin Core to stop gatekeeping and allow these completely valid transactions,” said Leonidas.
CoinTelegraph
📊 Market 1 source just now
While BIP 110 wants to restrict data through a consensus change and has almost no miner support, a new DOG Mode client wants the opposite and requires no vote at all.
CoinDesk
💰 Funding 1 source just now
Currently, corporate chains dominate the tokenization market.
AmbCrypto
📊 Market 1 source 1h ago
The Bitcoin Regime Score metric showed short-term bullish market components for Bitcoin.
AmbCrypto
🚀 Protocol 1 source 1h ago
The launch gives Bybit a locally operated platform in one of Asia’s largest crypto markets, home to more than 21 million crypto exchange users.
CoinTelegraph
📊 Market 1 source 2h ago
Geopolitical tensions and renewed fears of U.S.-China frictions are weighing on risk assets, including bitcoin.
CoinDesk
📊 Market 1 source 2h ago
Assessing the reasons behind growth in Polygon network users and usage.
AmbCrypto
The Trench
📊 LAUNCHPAD MARKET
PumpFun (24h)
├ Created: 21,974 | Graduated: 613 (2.79%)
├ Volume: $289.5M | Traders: 348.2K
└ Market Share: 14.6%
PumpFun (7d / 30d)
├ 7d: 141K created → 3.6K graduated (2.54%)
└ 30d: 732.8K created → 12.1K graduated (1.65%)
Overall Market (24h)
├ Total Mints: 25,747 | Graduated: 3,985
├ Total Volume: $2B | Traders: ~512.3K
├ Active Launchpads: 50
└ Overall Grad Rate: 15.48%
Top 5 by Volume (24h)
1. met-dbc — $1.7B (85.0%) — 3.5K mints
2. pump.fun — $289.5M (14.6%) — 22K mints
3. letsbonk.fun — $5.5M (0.3%) — 154 mints
4. moonshot — $1.1M (0.1%) — 30 mints
5. bags.fun — $844.7K (0.0%) — 34 mints
Source: Jupiter API
Top Narratives/Meta
🔥 Trending Narratives (Binance)
Hyper Bull Themes 🔥 $116.4K (6 tokens)
Top: HBULL $114.1K · HBULL $8.7 · HBULL $51.1
WINGIT Themes 🔥 $62.3K (2 tokens)
Top: WINGIT $62.3K · WINGIT $1.5
Cashcow Launches CASHCOW Token Culture 🔥 $59K (6 tokens)
Top: CASHCOW $60.3K · CASHCOW $-1.3K · CASHCOW $0.9
Alleged US Currency with Trump Signature Culture 🔥 $53.7K (6 tokens)
Top: Trump Coin $45.6K · TrumpCoin $5.6K · TRUMP $214.7
Welcome Back Homie Culture 🔥 $44.5K (6 tokens)
Top: HOMIE $43K · HOMIE $267.6 · HOMIE $300.4
Alleged Jimothy Meme Image Viral Culture 🔥 $43.1K (6 tokens)
Top: Jimothy $41.8K · Jimothy $1.1K · Jimothy $57.3
Sunny Street Themes 🔥 $42.5K (1 tokens)
Top: SUNNYS $42.5K
Source: Binance Web3
📣 Social Hype Leaderboard (Binance)
#1 SPCX ⚪ Unknown
#2 SOL ⚪ Unknown
#3 ANSEM ⚪ Unknown
#4 HBULL ⚪ Unknown
#5 TROLL ⚪ Unknown
#6 TRIPLET ⚪ Unknown
#7 AURA ⚪ Unknown
Source: Binance Web3 Social Pulse
Momentum Leaders
⚠️ No momentum leaders found
Active Chains
Base $3.5B -14.6%
BSC $3B -18.5%
Ethereum $2.9B -18.5%
Prediction Markets
🏛️ Politics
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
YES 4% NO 96%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 0% NO 100%
🌐 Macro/Economy
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
YES 0% NO 100%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
YES 84% NO 16%
CROWD VIEW
Politics: Bearish (0 bullish / 4 bearish / 1 split) · Macro: Mixed (1 bullish / 1 bearish / 0 split)
System Health
7D Win Rate
0%
Alerts (24h)
0
📊 Track Record📉 Declining
Win Rate
52%
112W / 103L
7D Rate
0%
Avg PnL
+1.5%
Streak
🔥 4
Best: 17
14D Rate
0%
Avg Resolution
2.7d
Total Calls
276
61 active
LONG
55%
70W / 58L · Avg +2.2%
SHORT
44%
33W / 42L · Avg +0.6%
KELLY PNL SIMULATION
Capital: $19.4K
Total: +94.05%
Win Rate: 67.59%
Max DD: 10.16%
Sharpe-like: 0.27
Trades: 290
PERFORMANCE BY ASSET
SYMBOL CALLS WIN RATE AVG PNL
SOL 58 55% +2.3%
BTC 57 54% +1.2%
ETH 55 60% +2.7%
BNB 45 36% -0.6%
MONTHLY TREND
41%
Feb 26
96 calls
53%
Mar 26
161 calls
61%
Apr 26
46 calls
100%
May 26
1 calls
ACTIVE POSITIONS (61)
SYM DIR ENTRY TARGET P&L STATUS DATE
AVAX SHORT $19.5 T: $18.5 — ⏳ 2026-04-23
PEPE SHORT $7.80e-6 T: $7.10e-6 — ⏳ 2026-04-22
DOGE SHORT $0.104 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-09
LINK SHORT $9 T: $8.7 — ⏳ 2026-04-09
DOGE SHORT $0.107 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-08
LINK LONG $9 T: $9.5 — ⏳ 2026-04-08
DOGE SHORT $0.105 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-05
LINK LONG $9 T: $9.5 — ⏳ 2026-04-05
DOGE SHORT $0.105 T: $0.098 — ⏳ 2026-04-04
LINK LONG $8.75 T: $9.35 — ⏳ 2026-04-03
RECENT CALLS (215 total)
SYM DIR ENTRY ACTUAL P&L RESULT DATE
BTC LONG $78,000 $75,595 -3.1% ❌ 2026-04-23
ETH SHORT $2,350 $2,244 +4.5% ✅ 2026-04-23
SOL SHORT $86 $82.6 +4.0% ✅ 2026-04-23
BNB SHORT $637 $615.58 +3.4% ✅ 2026-04-23
BTC LONG $76,500 $80,959 +5.8% ✅ 2026-04-22
ETH SHORT $2,395 $2,290 +4.4% ✅ 2026-04-22
SOL SHORT $87.8 $82.6 +5.9% ✅ 2026-04-22
BNB SHORT $641 $615.58 +4.0% ✅ 2026-04-22
BTC LONG $70,500 $74,328 +5.4% ✅ 2026-04-09
ETH LONG $2,175 $2,361 +8.6% ✅ 2026-04-09
DATA SOURCES
[OK] Binance | [OK] Binance Charts | [OK] DeFi Llama | [OK] Birdeye Trench | [OK] Fear & Greed | [OK] Polymarket | [OK] Jupiter | [OK] Jupiter Launchpads | [OK] CoinGecko | [OK] AlphaSense | [OK] News Search | [OK] Order Book | [OK] Binance Web3 | [OK] Signal Intel | [OK] Signal Tracking | [OK] The Wire | [OK] Opportunity Research | [FAIL] AI Council | [OK] Moderator
Generated: 2026-07-17 06:15:58 UTC · Errors: 1